Once upon a time, I ended my newsletter, the Weekly Wambooli Salad, with an annual prediction of things to coming in the new year. Generally, I was wrong, but that didn’t stop me. So here I go again!
The big issue for everyone in 2009 is the global economic downturn. As usual, governments will do the utmost wrong thing to correct it, which will merely prolong it. Regardless of their efforts, we will survive. The computer industry, on the other hand, may not survive intact.
• I predict you’ll see some software and hardware companies bite the dirt or get bought out. While a down economy doesn’t destroy companies on its own, it does expose weaker companies. I won’t go out on a limb and say which companies will bite it.
• Windows 7 will appear, but no telling when. My guess is that it will be beer without the bubbles as it looks a lot like Windows Vista. In fact, some wags may dub it “Windows Vista Plus.” Regardless, if Microsoft can make it work faster, it may catch on. I don’t expect massive upgrades, however. People really like Windows XP and will hang on to those PCs for as long as possible.
• You’ll see a new release of Microsoft Office. I’ll call it Office 2010, though it may have a cute moniker like Office Pink or something silly. It will be a generic Office update, with the applications continuing to use the Ribbon interface of Office 2007. As with Windows 7, I don’t expect to see a lot of upgrades.
• On the Apple front, I expect to see new iMacs and perhaps an iPhone Nano in January, though that’s no secret. I would like to see a Mac Tablet. That would be cool. I’m also planning on seeing a new iPhone generation in August, perhaps with real GPS and video chat. That would be something.
• The bonus side of the economic downturn will be a drop in prices. Expect to see deep discounts on hardware and software if the recession deepens and companies are eager to move product.
Next year at this time I’ll review these predictions, but feel free to ridicule them now if you like.
One thing I want to look at is what Apple does to its hardware prices? Will they actually reduce it to sane levels now? Even though I don’t think that the fact that OSX is able to run on non-apple machines actually bothers Apple (only a minority of the people would go through the hassle), I do believe that a PC would look extremely tempting with its lower price tag…
Moreover, I fear for the future of touch sensitive technologies. I don’t think many companies will introduce touch sensitive computers (HP Touch-smart might fade into obscurity). Until software heavily makes use of the technology, it remains an expensive plaything, and not many companies are going to put in money into R&D. Its a pity that a real cool technology with tremendous potential might be push back years because of the current economic scenario. While I’m sure the same could be said of R&D in any industry, the computer industry now affects a large percentage of the population…
Comment by sriksrid — January 1, 2009 @ 8:48 am
Apple could always lower their prices. Though the fanboys claim there is value there, the pieces are over-priced when compared to PC hardware. Such a move would boost sales. I read elsewhere that it’s predicted Apple’s market share could be as high as 20%, which would make them the #1 computer manufacturer. Who knows?
Apple also has to decide what to do with Steve Jobs. The heath rumors are rumors, but it is an issue and Apple hasn’t handled it well.
Interesting notes about the touch technologies. The computer industry is known for excess. I remember the 50-button mouse. Weird things happen when techies and marketing people start a vicious cycle that leaves out the customer.
Comment by admin — January 1, 2009 @ 10:13 am