This has been predicted before.
People have been saying that the PC is dead ever since the Macintosh was introduced in 1984. Then again in 1987, when IBM introduced the PS/2.
When the Internet blossomed in the 1990s, people said that the PC would be dead.
Now they’re saying it again. This time I believe that they’re correct, but I don’t view the situation as a “death” as more of a refinement.
The Boss at the end of the PC death game is a cell phone, of course.
No surprise: Cell phones are taking off, now that they do data in addition to making phone calls. Indeed, according to one of my son’s cell phone bills, he uses 120 minutes of talk-time a month but sends 2500 text messages and uses a hefty amount of Internet access.
For most people, the cell phone is a better gizmo than the computer, giving them what they need: email, Internet, basic communications, games. Why get a full desktop computer for all that?
Cell phones also feature the Golden Goose that Bill Gates could never catch: users paying a monthly fee.
Gates always wanted us to pay more and more to use our computers. That’s why he began the endless (and pointless) software upgrade cycle. He even spoke of a software subscription model, which never could work. What Gates wanted was what the cell phone provides: a monthly fee.
Even though cell phones will replace PCs for most people, I don’t see the PC disappearing. It’s growth will slow, but as a productivity gizmo, the PC is peerless. They’ll keep making them, people will keep buying them, and those of us who use them will keep making stuff. The cell phone users, they’ll use the stuff. It’s a good match.
They will always make some form of desktop PC. I would think it would be mainly for businesses (and for gamers who like to upgrade), I can’t see the employees of a call centre doing their work on a smart phone! However in the office where I work quite a few people now have laptops, so they can take them around. I do think if you want a desktop PC you will have to order one or go to a special shop, as most of the big retailers will stop selling them, because they aren’t as popular. I have no need for a smart phone or a laptop for that matter, but if the i phone was pay as you go and a lot cheaper I might buy one, I have used the i pad in the Apple store and it is pretty cool I guess, I just wouldn’t trust my self with something so expensive and easy to lose or get stolen. I hope the future of software will be much more open source and upgrading your OS won’t be a costly experience, Windows 7 wasn’t a huge amount to buy new this time, well for home premium was reasonable lets hop it stays that way. There is an interesting project under way called React OS which is a free open source OS that is not unix and completely compatible with Windows! It looks like XP.
Comment by chiefnoobie — October 27, 2010 @ 2:10 am
I’ll have to look into that React OS. Interesting.
Smartphones and the new iPad-like things are designed for users and consumers, not producers. The desktop and laptop computers will be designed for people who create the content that the consumers and users require. It’s actually a nifty for-profit model!
Comment by admin — October 27, 2010 @ 7:45 am