January 1, 2016

Predictions for 2016

Filed under: Main — admin @ 12:01 am

After the longest dry spell, things are looking up for high tech. Lamentably, these new exciting trends are happening in realms beyond those of computers, tablets, and phones. Advances in robotics, space technology, and travel are truly something. Computers? Meh.

Here are my predictions for the coming year with regards to computers, laptops, mobile technology, and software:

Tablets Excite Few

I just don’t see the tablet paradigm lasting much longer. In fact, I was surprised to discover that most people who buy tablets opt for the Wi-Fi only version. That’s not going to excite the cellular dealers into stocking a great number of tablets in their stores.

Further, I don’t see the larger-format tablets taking off. My theory is that tablets provided a bridge between the smaller cell phone screen and a laptop screen. The larger-format tablets merely remind users that they should have purchased a laptop.

Also, just about every tablet owner I know uses a keyboard with their tablet. That means what they really want is a 2-in-1 (my next prediction). So I see tablet sales going flat. Eventually, my prediction is that people will keep their phones, mostly out of necessity, but the tablet phase is drawing to a close.

The 2-in-1 PC Model Rules

The 2-in-1 laptops are insanely popular, especially the successful Microsoft Surface. It’s kicking butt! Other 2-in-1s are also proving popular. They offer the power of a laptop, but also the capability to break away the keyboard and use the device like a tablet. As a bonus, you get the full version of Windows 10 with your 2-in-1. And Microsoft has customized Office so that you can use your stubby finger to manipulate things on a touchscreen. This is one area where Microsoft has actually beaten Apple to the finish.

As a tangential prediction, I see Apple introducing their first 2-in-1 MacBook in the next year. If so, that would mark the first time Apple has copied Microsoft. Be prepared to mark your calendars!

Office 2016: The Final Edition

I believe Office 2016 is the last version of the Microsoft Office Suite that will be sold as an individual program. All future versions will be offered only via subscription. That makes sense. I mean, really, what else can Microsoft do to improve the programs? They just need to hone the software and stop messing with it to justify a new version every two to three years. Come on!

The Apple Watch II

This isn’t a real prediction in that it’s something Apple always does. Remember how the first iPod owners were miffed when 6 months later Apple came out with a better iPod? How about the initial iPhone fiasco? The Apple Watch isn’t immune to this process.

My feeling is that the Apple Watch is a dud. Even my favorite Apple fanboy no longer wears her watch. So Apple has some fixin’ to do. The Apple Watch II will come out and bee sleeker, better, and totally more whiz-bang than the original. These facts won’t deter the legions from adopting the new Apple Watch.

As a gizmo, however, I don’t see the watch paradigm taking off, not yet. As I’ve written in the past, the watch interface must be vocal, not visual. You should talk to the thing and it talks back. Just look at all the smartwatch designs in the realm of science fiction and you’ll see how it works. I don’t know whether the manufacturers will figure that out or not.

Facebook Becomes MySpace

Facebook has become so wretched that picking on it is easy! For me, Facebook has become a cesspool of political animosity. I have friends on both sides of the political spectrum and they just spew hate at each other via Facebook. It’s getting boring.

What I enjoy on Facebook is seeing pictures of friends and family. For the funny and interesting stuff, I now use Reddit or 9gag. But the rest of it? Meh. I know my kids are beyond Facebook. Eventually the rest of humanity may join them, in which case Facebook becomes a digital relic like MySpace.

The Next President of the United States Will Be

Hillary Clinton.

I mean, they should just hand her the crown and get it over with. Having an election is a complete reality show at this point. The real drama is over on the Republican side of the race, thanks to meglomaniac Donald Trump. He may win the nod, but I think Hillary will stomp him.

Trust me when I say that I am not a Clinton fan. Most of my political friends are backing either Ted Cruz or Bernie Sanders. Having Sanders win the Democratic nod would be delicious, but Clinton plays dirty and Sanders is too nice of a guy to stoop to that level.

Anyway, I think Hillary gets it, which doesn’t affect high tech at all, but the rancor and discord it would generate is enough to keep me off Facebook for the rest of my life.

Enjoy the new year!

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