The parallels between the über-hot Facebook of today and the AOL of a decade ago are weird and frightening.

First, and most obviously, I dislike both AOL and Facebook.

I remember having a graphic on the Wambooli Home page that said, “AOL: Just Say No.” Oh, here it is:

Flee the AOL Tyranny!

Back in the early 00’s, I got lots of email from frustrated AOL users. There were viruses, bugs, sluggishness — hey! Sounds like Facebook, doesn’t it?

Like Facebook, AOL of 10 years ago appealed to a mass audience. Both systems aren’t something you see a typical programmer, hacker, or nerd gushing over.

I remember a parody of the “Information Superhighway” back from the early 2000s. The description of AOL was a third-world bus full of illiterates and their chickens, spewing pollution all over the road, occupying two lanes of traffic, and going about 20 MPH.

Sounds like Facebook, a little?

AOL was one of the biggest stock offerings of its day. The stock skyrocketed the company’s value to such a hideously huge amount and AOL bought Time-Warner. I remember that press conference with the nervous T-W executives standing around, not knowing quite what to make of AOL.

You’ll see a similar thing happen in a few months (or maybe longer) when Facebook starts selling its stock. The price will skyrocket, but that will probably be the end of Facebook.

AOL started losing customers around 2002 or so, after it went public. That’s when people began to figure out that AOL wasn’t the only way to get on the Internet.

The AOL email address quickly became kind of a stigma; you wouldn’t expect to do serious business with dtrump@aol.com, for example.

Since 2002, the AOL customer base has remained flat. It’s just not necessary.

Facebook today is a phenomena, but I see it as merely sucking up all the empty space that was once occupied by AOL. Face it, both systems appeal to that casual user. Facebook strikes directly and successfully at the current desire by many people to be famous. It’s a great outlet, but it’s not a foundation to run a company that’s supposedly worth a few billion dollars.

My guess is that Facebook will peak soon, if it hasn’t already. It will probably happen after the IPO (Initial Public Offering). Something else will take its place, or several somethings will horn in on the market.

In fact, I’m sure there are phone developers right now working on the Facebook killer. If one (or several) do come around, they will be designed specifically for that mobile/texting market. That will certainly end Facebook as we know it.

Check back in 2020 and I’ll see how good is my hindsight.