Apple computer’s stock has taken a nose-dive since mid-September. It’s down from an all-time high of just a hair over 700 to just a hair over 500 this morning. What are the reasons?
First, you could blame the “fiscal cliff.” Capital gains taxes here in the US are set to rise next month. So a lot of stockholders may be taking their profits before those taxes go up. But if that were true, don’t you think that the entire market would be down just as much?
Second, it could be the reckoning that no one will ever replace Steve Jobs. I doubt that. Apple has a lot of the same people working there, and Jobs doubtless had projects in the pipeline. Still, stock trading is emotional, so that may play a small role.
Third, it could just be that Apple hasn’t done anything amazing in a while. That could be tied to my second reason, but I think it’s the big one here. People expected wiz-bang from Apple and we just haven’t seen it in a few years. So the thrill is gone.
Historically, Apple stock does tend to peak and valley, followed by a long, slow climb back into the stratosphere. I do, however, believe that the stock will dip below the magic $500/share line and then dip some more. Then it will recover. In fact, if they announce Apple iTV next year — and it’s wiz-bang — you may see the stock jump 60 or 70 points in a day.
