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December 28, 2009

Am I Clairvoyant? 2009 Edition

Filed under: Main — Tags: — Dan Gookin @ 12:01 am

Last year this time, I made some predictions. How’d I do?

Number 1: I predict you’ll see some software and hardware companies bite the dirt or get bought out.

I’m sure this happened, but not on the scale I originally thought. Surprisingly, Dell is still with us. So is Gateway. I’m thankful, but surprised.

Number 2: Windows 7 will appear, but no telling when.

October 22. Predicting Windows 7 was a safe bet. I didn’t go out on a limb and set a timetable, which was wise, but isn’t part of anyone’s New Year prognostication.

My guess is that [Windows 7] will be beer without the bubbles as it looks a lot like Windows Vista.

That it does.

[If] Microsoft can make it work faster, it may catch on. I don’t expect massive upgrades, however. People really like Windows XP and will hang on to those PCs for as long as possible.

True, people are hanging on to XP for way, way longer than they should. Apparently they don’t know one of the weird rules of computing which states that hardware dies despite the face that its software remains functional.

Microsoft did make Windows 7 faster, at least at boot up. And there are massive upgrades, with lots of companies who skipped Vista, updating their antique Windows XP systems with Windows 7. So I predict another dud.

Number 3: You’ll see a new release of Microsoft Office. I’ll call it Office 2010, though it may have a cute moniker like Office Pink or something silly. It will be a generic Office update, with the applications continuing to use the Ribbon interface of Office 2007. As with Windows 7, I don’t expect to see a lot of upgrades.

Yes, the next version of Office is being called Office 2010. I was right. I was wrong, however, on the release. I believe Office 2010 is actually going to be due out in 2010. I hear February, though I don’t remember whether that was an alcohol-induced nightmare or someone actually telling me February.

Yes, Office 2010 looks a lot like Office 2007. It does have some nice improvements. See my blog post here.

The “I don’t expect to see a lot of upgrades” prediction remains in the wild.

Number 4: On the Apple front, I expect to see new iMacs and perhaps an iPhone Nano in January, though that’s no secret.

Yeah, that was like predicting sunshine in Florida. No credit! Though there was no iPhone Nano. I was wrong again!

I would like to see a Mac Tablet. That would be cool.

See Wednesday’s post, where I make this same prediction, though as with predicting new iMacs it’s not really a secret.

I’m also planning on seeing a new iPhone generation in August, perhaps with real GPS and video chat. That would be something.

Yes, there was a new iPhone that came out in August. I think that’s going to be a trend; I’ll make the same prediction again on Wednesday. The GPS still isn’t real on the iPhone, and I don’t believe they can do video chat until they get more bandwidth on the cellular network.

Number 5: The bonus side of the economic downturn will be a drop in prices. Expect to see deep discounts on hardware and software if the recession deepens and companies are eager to move product

I’m not certain whether this happened or not. I see lower prices, but nothing lower than the usual price drops that take place with new hardware. For example, your typical 1GB external hard drive is cheaper than it was last year, but that’s to be expected.

Total score: I would say, zero. Maybe I should give this up? But still, there’s a looming blog post due Wednesday where I foolishly try predicting the technology future again.

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